⚠ Very rough modeling — not trustworthy.
Exploratory projections built on one poll and many untested assumptions.
Do not rely on these numbers.
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Projection
June 2026 primary (actual, two-way)
Units
Areas (with 90% ranges)
Tracts (each tract's own projection)
Tracts: no ranges at tract level. Gray: not projected (no June votes).
Undecided rule
Late pro-McKinney spending
Net pro-McKinney ad advantage:
Share of undecideds voting while ads air:
darker = wider margin
By
cluster
(
two-way %; whiskers =
, by formula)